C ould 2024 be a year unlike any in America’s post-war economic history? Never since 1945 has annual inflation, measured by the consumer-price index, fallen from above 5% to below 3% without a recession at the time of the fall or within the subsequent 18 months. Yet professional forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia say that at the end of 2024 headline annual inflation will be 2.5%, whereas real GDP will grow by 1.7% over the course of the year—roughly in line with its long-term trend. Financial markets are rejoicing at the prospect of such a “ soft landing ”. The Fed has been fighting inflation by…
