The last couple of years have seen a series of extraordinary events, most notably the invasion of Ukraine by Russia on 24 February 2022 and the Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023. This year may well see more equally extraordinary things, with the widening out of the Israel-Hamas War a distinct possibility, as is a ratcheting up of tensions between China and Taiwan, and between North Korea and South Korea. All three would involve the U.S., China, and Russia in one way or another, and all three scenarios carry with them the threat of a sudden spike in all prices. Other events, less predictable, may also emerge that would do…
