L abour governments have come to power five times in the past century and three of those occasions have come in years that end in a four: 1924, 1964 and 1974. If Rishi Sunak does call an election during the course of 2024, history suggests he will lose. But not by all that much. In 1924, Ramsay MacDonald formed a minority government after the December 1923 election. Harold Wilson scraped home with a slender overall majority in October 1964 and returned to Downing Street after the inconclusive result in February 1974. Looking at the state of opinion polls, a similar outcome in 2024 – assuming that’s when the election is called –…
