The year is ending with a significant level of optimism among investors, focusing on an expected string of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and an estimated economic soft landing. However, a soft landing is a very rare event. Since 1975, there have been nine rate-hike cycles, and seven of them ended in a recession. Why? We must understand that the concept of "landing" that the Fed repeats constantly is exactly that: a recession. A soft landing is a significant decline in the aggregate money supply, which entails lower credit and access to capital for families and businesses. There is no other way to lower inflation, which the…
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