How were so many economists so wrong about the recession?

This time last year, 85 per cent of economists in one poll predicted a recession in 2023 – and that was an optimistic take compared with the 100 per cent probability of a recession forecast two months earlier. Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, drawing upon the work of his highly able staff, expressed fear in March that bringing down the rate of inflation would cost millions of American jobs. And yet none of this has happened. Both inflation and unemployment are headed in the right direction, and most economists expect the US to avoid a recession in 2024. Economists have yet to figure out why things went so well,…